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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.