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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."