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Seven years ago, a mere eight words to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance and Settled Issues

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. And, if Europe may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he believes a customs pact is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost of 2018

This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but merely an effort to keep open the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk & A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.